Driving a car, filling gas in a gas station, standing in a traffic jam - does all this sound familiar? By the end of this century all of these will be considered "things of the past", as we are currently standing before some serious transportation revolutions. The craziest stuff we have seen in science fictions movies are becoming a reality, and we are all going to take part in this revolution as it's going to start in the next few decades.
The challenges of today's transportation
Since ancient times, getting from here to there was one of men's greatest challenges. From camels and horses, to cars and airplanes, we have come a long way in getting across long distances. Nevertheless, along with all the progress that has been made in this domain, some serious problems arose:
Nearly 1.3 million people die in road crashes each year and about 20-50 million are injured or disabled. Cars release approximately 333 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually, which is one of the leading reasons for global warming. If this not enough, instead of helping people to save time, American drivers currently spend 6.9 billion hours a year stuck in traffic.
All of these issues are eventually translated into money. A lot of money... Last year, traffic congestion cost $305 billion and motor vehicle crashes in 2010 cost almost $1 trillion in loss of productivity and loss of life - and this is in the U.S alone!
The source of these deficiencies lies in the simple fact that humanity is expanding rapidly, while more and more countries are becoming fully industrialized. This is causing an exponential increase in the number of vehicles: There are currently more than 1.2 billion cars worldwide, and the number is projected to reach 2 billion by 2040.
While the need for transportation is not expected to decrease, the good news is that there are several interesting developments that could make a big difference and maybe even solve some of the aforementioned problems.
The end of fossil fuel-burning cars
The most obvious future prediction when it comes to transportation is the rise of electric vehicles. In 2025, Norway will become the first country in the world to ban the sale of fossil fuel-burning cars. Britain, France, China, India and many other countries are intending to follow suit during the next two decades.
When it comes to prices, electric vehicles are easier to manufacture and maintain because of the fact that their engines consist of only 20 moving parts, versus 2,000 of them in gasoline or diesel vehicles. Lithium batteries are the most significant part of the overall cost of an electric car. However, according to Bloomberg, battery costs are declining rapidly - by as much as 19% per year.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that by 2040, 54% of new car sold worldwide will be electric. According to researchers at the International Monetary Fund and Georgetown University, by the same time more than 90% of all passenger vehicles in the U.S., Canada and Europe will be electric.
When we'll see autonomous car?
Another much-discussed futuristic development is the self-driving car. Google is the leading player in this filed with its self-driving car Waymo. Other interesting players are Uber, Tesla and Apple. Google has been testing self-driving cars since 2009, and has achieve some very impressive results. Technology-wise, the autonomous cars are ready to be used. So why aren't they on the roads yet?
On March 18th this year, a 49-year-old woman named Elaine Herzberg was struck by a self-driving Uber car in Tempe, Arizona and died shortly after. Herzberg was the first person to be killed by an autonomous vehicle. Even though statistics show that 90% of car crashes in the US involve some form of driver error, this fatal event significantly raised public fear levels of autonomous vehicles.
But fear is not the only issue. There are 3.5 million truck drivers, 200,000 Taxi drivers and 500,000 bus drivers currently working in the U.S. Seeing that autonomous cars will eliminate these jobs, the simple fact is that these workers will need some "adjusting time" so that they will at least have a chance to find new work.
How much time do they have? Apparently not much. A report produced by Investment bank UBS predicts that autonomous cars will start taking off in 2026. Another interesting report produced by IEEE predicts that by 2040, 75% of all vehicles in the U.S. will be autonomous. This is right around the corner!
Not only cars
Autonomous vehicles won't have to be in form of today's cars. Next, for example, is a unique crowd-sourced start-up that is developing a driver-less pod concept, capable of linking up like train carriages and potentially transferring battery packs between units to create a seamless journey. Projects like Next will probably take an integral part in future transportation - mainly for their cost-effectiveness.
The trains of the future
Hyperloop One is an ambitious transportation project which purpose is to allow transporting passengers and cargo at airline speed and at a fraction of the cost of air travel. The Hyperloop uses a linear electric motor to accelerate and decelerate an electromagnetically levitated pod through a low-pressure tube, which will allow it to reach the speed of 1,080 km/h (670 mp/h).
The concept of Hyperloop transportation was introduced and named by Elon Musk in August 2013. The company has since raised $245 million from several venture capitals, and in October 2017 Hyperloop One and the Virgin Group announced a strategic investment partnership, resulting in Richard Branson joining the board of directors.
Hypeloop one is still in development and there are many technical challenges to be surpassed before this technology can be up and running, but it sesms like these guys are very serious. They've already signed some strategic agreements with several governments around the world, including Abu Dhabi, France, Indonesia, India South Korea and the U.S., in order to study the systems' feasibility.
There is no doubt that it will take some time, but as it seems, the concept of electromagnetically levitated pods has a great potential to replace a key part of air transportation as it will provide cheaper, safer, cleaner and even faster means of transportation.
The flying car
One of the most common science fiction clichés is the flying car. From "Back to the future" to "The Fifth Element", it seems like every futuristic movie depicts flying cars as part of our destiny. While flying cars have actually been around for some time, they've never been put into mass production - mainly for economic reasons. Eventually, when it comes to cost per mile, flying is still much more expensive than driving. Nevertheless, thanks to the quad-copter technology and the constant drop of lithium battery costs, the flying car dream could soon become a reality.
Pop.up is an interesting flying car project. It is a 2 seated self-driving car that can connect with a special self-driving drone, thos turning it into a flying car. This idea was first presented last year by no other than Airbus, and in the 2018 Geneva Motor Show Audi announced it has teamed up with Airbus in order to promote the project.
Several weeks ago, Uber unveiled its own "flying car" concept. Uber's vision is to create autonomous flying taxis that can conduct vertical takeoffs and landings from skyports, air stations on rooftops or on the ground. In the first phase Uber will use pilots to fly these cars, but the idea is that in the future these vehicles will be fully autonomous. The company plans to roll out UberAIR in Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles in 2023.
Not necessarily for good
In 1910, most of the horses were the main means of transportation in the United States, and the biggest worry in cities was what to do with all the horse manure that was piling up. Ironically, when the first cars entered the market, they were considered to be a clean solution in compare to the mess the horses left behind them. Could it be that sometime in the future these new electric vehicles will be considered polluting as well?
By 2030, there will be about 11 million tons of spent lithium-ion batteries in need of recycling, and these numbers are expected to increase dramatically with the rise of electric cars. As of today, only 5% of lithium-ion batteries are recycled. Not only do these batteries carry a risk of giving off toxic gases if damaged, but core ingredients such as lithium and cobalt can lead to water pollution and depletion among other environmental consequences.
Electric vehicles may not emit any NO2, but they do produce small particle pollution from the wear on brake discs and tires and by throwing up dust from roads. A recent European commission research paper found that about half of all particulate matter comes from these sources. As it seems, electronic cars may be the future, but the future won't necessarily be that clean.
In conclusion
When it comes to transportation, the next few decades are going to be exciting. From the cease of fossil fuel usage to the appearance of autonomous flying electric cars - the transportation of tomorrow is going to be a dramatic change to what we know. As with all technological progress, it's hard to determine if it's going to be for the good or for the bad, but one thing is for sure - the world is going to feel much smaller.